【能見】德國電網扛得住這次日食嗎？

1。為何日食會對德國電網影響如此大？

光伏裝機容量大——整個歐洲安裝的光伏電站容量為7700萬千瓦，德國有3900萬千瓦。

日食發生時光伏電站容量變化速率快——當日食發生時，德國光伏電站容量會有1200-1900萬千瓦的變化。這個變化量本身不足為奇，每天日出日落也是如此，但是日食之所以和日落日出相比天差地別，就是因為電站容量的變化速率在日食時極其高，容易對電網造成衝擊。

2。應對日食德國會採取什麼措施？

The temporary hole left by the eclipse will be filled by

natural gas plants

， which fire up relatively quickly， and possibly by the release of extra hydropower。 And utilities have the option of communicating directly with heavy power users—big manufacturing facilities， for instance—and

asking them to slow down production for an hour to ease the burden

。 It’s a bit like an orchestra conductor calling on an array of instruments in real time to keep up a steady flow of music。

Moreover， Kramer pointed out that the eclipse won’t happen all at once； it’s not like flipping a switch。 As the moon’s shadow moves across the country， the impact on solar will be phased in and out geographically。

A final option is

energy storage

， where solar power from the previous day could be kept in giant batteries and released during the eclipse。 Utility-scale storage is still in its infancy， and it won’t be on the table next week。 But a representative for Germany’s solar energy trade association said that solution could be up and running in time for the next major eclipse … in 2048。

美國2017年、中國2020年均會遇到相同規模的日食，此次德國應對日食對電網系統的影響無疑會有借鑑和參考意義。

3。德國光伏發電量實時監測

PV Leistung in Deutschland

光伏發電量變化率計算：

phase 1（06：15-9：45）——->PV power generation increased gradually to 13。4GW——->

13.4GW/3.5H

；

phase 2：（9：45-11：00）——->PV power generation decline sharply to 5。5GW——->

7.9GW/1.25H

；

phase 3：1H15M（11：00-12：00）——->PV power generation increased sharply to 19。3GW——->

13.8GW/H

；